A new study reveals a grim reality: hurricanes and tropical storms not only cause immediate devastation but also lead to a significant increase in mortality rates over the following 15 years.
In a study published in October 2024, researchers looked at the late effects on mortality of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms) affecting the continental U.S. from the years 1930 until 2015. There were 501 storms during that time period and the researchers found that over a 15-year period a tropical cyclone generated 11,000 to 15,000 excess deaths in the affected areas. Using wind speeds to classify storms as tropical cyclones, they looked at 20-year periods following tropical cyclones but found a mortality effect only during the first 15 years.
The researchers noted that the mortality risk was greater in areas that rarely get tropical cyclones compared to areas that get them frequently. Mortality risk after a tropical cyclone was also higher in black individuals than whites.
The authors estimated that the number of cyclones affecting the U.S currently imposes a burden of around 55,280–88,080 excess deaths per year.
They suggested five possible reasons for this phenomenon:
Economic disruption might change household economics. As an example, a job loss from the storm might adversely affect health insurance, or retirement savings may be used to repair property damage.
Social network changes. As an example, younger working-age individuals leaving to find work in a different area after a tropical cyclone might decrease social support for older family members that remain behind.
State or local governments restructuring budgets to support recovery after a tropical cyclone might necessitate a reduction of spending on healthcare infrastructure.
Ecological changes could increase disease vectors, such as mosquitos, or flooding might expose populations to harmful chemicals.
Increased physical and mental stress from experiencing tropical cyclones may worsen long-term health.
One limitation of the study was not including data from individuals who left an area after a cyclone. They also did not take into account storm surges, flooding, or rainfall. Unknown confounding variables may also limit reliance on results.
Comments:
The immediate tragedy of a severe weather event is clearly evident. This study suggests that there are also long-term negative consequences as a result of these storms. This study only looked at mortality, but it is also likely that there is also an increase of long-term non-fatal disease that may increase the public health burden after a tropical cyclone.
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Reference
Young, R., Hsiang, S. Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the United States. Nature (2024). Retrieved from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07945-5#citeas
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